I always have a lot on the idea of earthquake prediction, just as Gong Li as the former director of Bureau of internal work in the earthquake, others can only talk in private talk, afraid to open their own point of view. I had not wanted to write this subject, but because the said earthquake prediction is a no, it is said to be experts in earthquake prediction runs, it seems that I still do not understand their point of view, so just write a blog post, more detailed description of their views. In saying this thing before, a description of what a methodology that is scientific, technical and practical relations. engaged in scientific and technological activities of people probably know, our understanding of a problem is understood and described scientific issues from the beginning, that is, First find a phenomenon, a question the basic logic and internal relations. understanding of the scientific problems can come from technology implementations and system validation of this scientific theory, and finally practice, that is, considering the economic, social and cultural conditions Recognizing the technical scientific issues will be explained to understand the scientific theory and cost-effective to practice it. in accordance with the dialectical point of view, in practice, the discovery of new problems began to repeat the next cycle, has been traveling down.
in the understanding of science , technology and practice on the basis of the differences between, I'll start that first point, that is, our science of earthquake prediction research is still in the exploratory stage, and social and national needs for the required time of earthquake, location and intensity the prediction is a matter of practice, although there is a linkage between the two, but thousands of miles apart. whether in China or relatively advanced in science and technology the United States, Europe and Japan, for the inevitable earthquake logic and causality relationship has little to clarify, so at this time before the earthquake hope the relevant departments to accurately predict the occurrence of the earthquake, only the good wishes of their own wishful thinking.
The second point is that in China's current technological level and economic conditions, should give priority to the work of earthquake disaster prevention. The first is currently not reliable earthquake prediction, and earthquake disaster prevention, which is doing a good job engineering is very effective. lessons learned from this earthquake, foreign lessons as well. Second, in the economic development to a certain extent, the slightly higher cost little to enhance the seismic capacity of the project was possible after the Xingtai earthquake .40 years ago, because the country's economic capacity is very limited capacity of countries do not invest that time a lot of money to improve the seismic capacity of the project, the comprehensive consideration, between the property and the national life, the State quite rightly made the request to save people's lives. Since the earthquake engineering can not be done, then the only hope forecasting, want to be able to reduce casualties forecast. Today, the situation is completely different, people's lives is important, the property of the state and society can not be ignored, this time, we must first earthquake disaster prevention. Third, in other words, Even if we pass the level of earthquake prediction, earthquake if the project does not have enough capacity, after a strong earthquake or huge economic losses to occur; Conversely, if the level of the building's earthquake reached a certain level, even without the earthquake prediction If the earthquake does not occur when the project collapsed, it will not produce a large number of casualties, and huge economic losses will not occur, serve two purposes, therefore, no matter from that perspective, earthquake disaster prevention are needed first.
s three points, the earthquake prediction research needs of its way, but our emphasis on earthquake and disaster reduction should be effective from the perspective of preventive measures, good emergency plan. in the next few years, we can not estimate Earthquake Disaster Mitigation hopes in earthquake prediction above, because so far there is not enough evidence to suggest that the next few years we can completely overcome the scientific problems of earthquake prediction.
fourth view is that the experts were able to earthquake prediction listen to our views of these outsiders, do not put it in a mysterious earthquake prediction, but it can not be said to be the tiger ass, the other person must not touch. only open their own problems and mobilize the whole society, the power of the world, only possible mechanism of early resolution of this scientific problem earthquake.
I know I said that the content will cause a lot of people's resentment. However, to China's earthquake disaster reduction to be effective, I was also offended some people without any hesitation. Moreover, In that year, when the inner workings of Seismological Bureau, has offended a group of experts in earthquake prediction, once learned and said: Do not lay their evaluation of earthquake prediction problem! remember the earthquake struck near a summary of the meeting, experts of a big earthquake prediction also insisted that, if the radius of 3,000 km of data collected, must be able to find exceptions, will be able to find some information to forecast earthquakes.
Yes, anyone can be a hindsight, however, the country's earthquake disaster reduction can not be based do not fly, there is no prospective head above the earthquake prediction.
No comments:
Post a Comment