Whether China's stock market has bottomed out

 Chinese Stock Market has bottomed out?
Tan Jianli
recently, with increased volatility in international financial markets, global economic growth is slowing down, the international economic environment, significantly increased uncertainties and destabilizing factors, the domestic economic operation also some of the outstanding contradictions and problems. This increases the future economic and price trends to determine, to grasp the relationship between economic growth and inflation, the difficulty of macro-control face a more complicated situation. It is faced with such a complex situation of international financial turbulence, we in China stocks mixed. In this regard, I am not concerned about this issue a long time, now talk about some personal views, please enlighten me.
a world of economic globalization, economic globalization and integration
the market mechanism is the essence of global expansion in a market economy based on economic factors in the worldwide free flow and optimized allocation is the application of the adjustment of the market mechanism in the allocation of resources in the deepening division of labor from the domestic to the international extension. China's economic and international accelerating the process of economic globalization and world economic integration has become the development trend of world economy, domestic and international distribution pattern and a fundamental change in economic structure, the relative lack of demand and supply has become the future relative excess of the basic characteristics of market economy. main features: trade liberalization of goods and services flow freely around the globe; financial globalization, the international monetary and capital movement speed, increased degree of freedom; and investment liberalization and international capital in the global direct investment or indirectly investment, seeking maximum return on investment; the globalization of production, factors of production optimization in the global context, seeking the maximum economic benefits.
present, the external environment for China's economy have been greatly improved. China's commitment to comply with WTO rules, commitment to open up the domestic market and establish the image of a responsible big country, we have the sincerity and ability to fulfill their obligations. In the context of world economic integration, the world economy for any turbulence on China's economic development will have an impact, for sure. But how much of its impact on different opinions, I believe that the impact of the Chinese economy is still limited, some experts say is not so big, the biggest impact is nothing more than the import and export and psychology. The reasons are many, mainly China's unique social Political system, a large population, huge economic development scale, the miraculous economic growth for 30 years, hh.
Although economic globalization and world economic integration, China's economic development trends have a significant impact, but China the trend of rapid economic development still does not change, this is also a consensus of all parties the world. From this analysis, the Chinese stock market has a bottom.
Second, the objective reality of China's economic development 30 years of reform and opening
, China's international standing and influence a fundamental historical transformation, GDP 4th largest in the world total has been 3 years.
China's economy in 1978 (364.52 billion yuan) reform and opening up to 2007 (GDP totaled 24.953 trillion yuan) in 30 years, average annual growth rate of 9.8%. over the same period the average level of development of the world economy 6.8 percentage points faster, and its rapid growth, at least with the current rapid growth of the world to maintain the longest period of flat or South Korea longer. National Bureau of Statistics recently said Ma Jian Tong, China's GDP, is expected to surpass Germany to enter the global top three.
should be clear that China's 1.3 billion population,Bailey UGG boots, as the average of the total GDP, is very negative, but as stimulating consumer demand, but also a very big power. is the only domestic factors into account, you can also make China's economy has a high rate of development. As the National Development and Reform Commission Zhang Ping pointed out that investment in the next two years is actually the central 4 trillion Fixed asset investment is only part of these investments will lead to other industries and some local investment, Therefore, no country in the world match. The objective reality is the Chinese economy to resist risks, according to its own advantage to run trajectory.
unconventional development of China's economy 30 years to tell the world the fact that, despite the economic Globalization and the trend of world economic integration of China's economic development has a very big impact, but the trend of rapid economic development in China still will not change, this is a world consensus of the parties to the investing public. From this analysis, the Chinese stock market has is a bottom.
Third, the impact of financial crisis on China
signs that originated in the U.S. financial crisis on the real economy is gradually emerging countries. by the financial crisis, China's consumption, exports, investment and capital supply and demand are subject to a certain extent.
In this context, China's real economy can withstand the raging waves set off by the international financial crisis, caused concern. October 25, Premier Wen Jiabao Seventh Asia-Europe summit in response to a question that must do everything possible to prevent the financial crisis affect the real economy. the People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan on Oct. 26 in the first fifth meeting of the NPC Standing Committee by the strengthening of financial macro-control on the report pointed out that China's economy relatively high external dependence, the resulting global economic slowdown and weakening external demand is bound to a negative impact on China's economic development. can be said that Chinese entities economic impact is limited, the financial crisis has not yet translated into economic crisis.
multinational financial crisis has revealed the real economy. economic volume accounted for 6% of the world's developing countries, China, in this financial crisis raging in front of oncoming force can has withstood the test of attention. the financial crisis in China's real economy, mainly through trade, direct investment, financial and confidence of four channels. This means that if the financial crisis into a financial crisis, the economic and social development fundamental indicators, such as trade, investment, production, service, consumption and so will be comprehensive and serious impact.
present, from our point of view, there is some impact, but also did not have a serious impact, add China's economic development on its own particularity, and the circulation and other capital projects unfinished, the financial crisis on China's economic development is limited. can be said that the rapid growth of China's economic development, or can be maintained. Thus, the Chinese stock market is stage should be a bottom of the.
Fourth, the Chinese leadership's macroeconomic control policy
as *** for the new leadership of General Secretary, has begun a second round of the power to review the first ruling The results, in the second round of the ruling, its political, economic, military, social, legal, diplomatic and other aspects of leadership should let the Chinese people at ease. Of course, no one is perfect, as long as people there are always drawbacks and weaknesses,UGG boots clearance, to pursue their lack of leadership there are still many, but in its essence, the overall situation of the outstanding leadership of view, should be affirmed.
that the Chinese government's macroeconomic control policies introduced, despite the perceived lack of time in advance, But it is now or will be issued a policy point of view, regardless of the depth, breadth, it is unprecedented. to believe that in China, the country where the results of its regulation will be a positive and profound.
in Under China's existing political conditions, the political situation, despite some minor problems, the country's political situation is still very stable, can be assured production, work and live. *** If you believe that China, the Chinese government and political leadership, You can rest assured that the Chinese stock market will not continue in the doldrums, is likely to change into a bear market bull market began. Now is the stock market should bottom area.
five, the future trend of China's economic development
appeared in ancient China Many Golden Age, Golden Age historians recognized three: that is, 180 years ago to 141 years before 40 years, 1795 AD, for up to 134 years.
the future of China's economists do all kinds of predictions of China's economy:
Professor Liu Wei of Peking University School of Economics said: One question: the rapid growth of other countries have harvested a fruit that has become a newly industrialized country, completed the market, complete urbanization, completed the industrialization, has become a quasi-developed countries. In China, it? 20 years after this development, but suddenly found from the real industrialization was very far away. in terms of urban structure, regional structure, industrial structure, technological structure, or the employment structure, market-oriented economy, and even the actual feelings on the economy, away from the industrialization of China There are still very far away. , there are twenty years away from the industrialized, so the Chinese economy can maintain at least twenty years of sustained high growth, it is a possibility, but also a potential opportunity. Professor Lin Yifu, director of the view that the United States more than the U.S. economy is entirely possible to become the world's largest, most powerful economy. Professor Li Jingwen so that the future economic growth in China can be divided into three phases: the first is 2000-2010, the economy maintained an average of 8% growth high speed; second phase 2010-2030, the economic growth remained at an average of 6%; the third stage is the 2030-2050 year, economic growth remained at an average of 4% -5% level, the scale of the Chinese economy in 2020 and strength are to enter the world. Dr. Wang Xiaolu analysis concluded that: From the 20 years 2001-2020 the average annual economic growth rate in China was 6.4%, of which 2001-2010 was 6.58%, 6.22 2011-2020 %. Solutions Dr Sanming conclusions of the study are: in the foreign scholars even more optimistic than we are. U.S. economist Rostow in its ; Four Little Dragons be towards the 23% increase in 1995 was 52%, 60.6% in 2000, and then surpass the U.S. in around 2015. U.S. National Security Council's report also that the current purchasing power parity terms China's economy to reach 6 trillion dollars, according to This inference, the Chinese GDP will surpass the U.S. in 20 years. Even in nominal GDP, assuming the current GDP of China and the United States 1 trillion, respectively, and 9 trillion U.S. dollars, the growth rate were 8% and 3%, the GDP of China After about 47 years to catch up and overtake the United States.
experts in accordance with the above analysis, the Chinese economy to high growth for several decades, the Chinese stock market is pessimistic about the situation and not yet worthy of the confidence you?
VI China's stock market decline in China's stock market stock index movements
since October 16, 2007 6124 points, to 28 October 2008 to 1664 points, down 4460 points, down 72.8% increase. This is the history of the world's stock markets are very rare and heavy, and it is rarely seen in stock prices rose law. It is precisely based on this background, many analysts pessimistic atmosphere, some say an economic downturn; some people say the stock market rules are not standardized, there are shady operations; Some people say that also has the value of the investment ; Some say the size of non-reduction; Some say the world financial crisis; some say in accordance with the K-line theory analysis also did not place; wave theory was that there is downside. and so forth.
these pessimists have little to say is common, it is now not much room for China's stock market fell, the time will not longer need to wait for time and so on. I think that in accordance with the pessimistic view, can increase a sober, less of a greedy,UGG boots cheap, as the capital markets investment should be considered when a shot.
seven predicted the rise in China's stock market rose and fell
stock market is due to its own laws. Similarly, in accordance with the value of the investment theory, K-line theory, wave theory, the value theory, short-term technology, the long-term investment, earnings, book value and dozens of kinds of analysis, considering the Chinese stock market will rise.
rising time should be started from now, prices should be the height of at least 1664 double points, standing above the 3200 points, with the rapid growth that can match the Chinese economy. the majority of shareholders friends, not to the Chinese economy and China's stock market lost confidence, remember: the people blinded by greed, greed, distracted people shape fans. greed Yes, the stock market as greed hh Nuggets mine, in the unlimited expansion of greed in the process, accidentally and rational mind, Do not listen to others, to hold their own methods and techniques of sound investment, go its own way. I believe China's stock market is likely in the world,Discount UGG boots, problem
1, China's political democracy, scientific constant increase in the stock market expansion.
2, the constant improvement of China's securities regulations, to listen to the views of the majority shareholders.
3, stock market information, timely public, transparency and so on, continued to deepen and expand.
4, punish violations to re-stock operations, to be strict.
5, the securities administrator, you are more aware of the need to maintain a stable operation of the stock market rules.
I am on the current view of the Chinese stock market, a little superficial, as China's ordinary citizens, there is no profound theoretical and practical experience, but concerned about the Chinese economy and China's stock market a little warm, so I was talking about above understanding, inappropriate, please you Comments shareholders criticized friend.